Japan summons China envoy over disputed isles |
- Japan summons China envoy over disputed isles
- Quantifying How Manchester United Won the EPL Title
- North Korea demands recognition as nuclear arms state
- Dragon's Maze: Evaluating Azorius
- North Korea demands recognition as nuclear arms state
- Japan nationalists near disputed isles, MPs visit shrine
- Irate Italian president to begin talks on new coalition
- New Paraguay Leader to Rebuild Regional Ties
- In Israel, U.S. Defense Delivers Embrace
- Survey Finds Majority Backs Keystone Pipeline
- U.S. Probes Suspect's Alleged Militant Ties
- Japan nationalists near disputed isles, MPs visit shrine
- VIDEO: Woodstock icon Richie Havens dies
- Pakistani Judge Gains Clout
- U.K. Suggests Pound Oversight if Scotland Goes
- VIDEO: Woodstock icon Richie Havens dies
- Irate Italian president to begin talks on new coalition
- Half of Guantanamo detainees on hunger strike
- Japan war shrine visits anger China, South Korea
- New Avian-Flu Strain Puzzles Health Group
| Japan summons China envoy over disputed isles Posted: 22 Apr 2013 10:05 PM PDT Japanese prime minister threatens force if China attempts to land on island chain in East China Sea. |
| Quantifying How Manchester United Won the EPL Title Posted: 22 Apr 2013 10:00 PM PDT With Manchester United securing their thirteenth title in twenty-one Premier League seasons and doing so with four games left in the season, it is fashionable to come up with explanations of "How Manchester United Won The Title." Readers of this blog, which has been tracking each team's title likelihoods since the beginning of the season, may be tempted to point to the lgraph below and declare, "Ah-ha! It was around match days fourteen to sixteen when the gap between United and City really opened up. United must have won the title then." It is true that United began to seriously distance themselves from the rest of the field at that point in the season, which correlates to matches played between November 30th and December 12th. As November came to an end United and City were separated by only one point, and faced a pivotal clash at the City of Manchester Stadium on December 9th. Before City could get to that match they would draw Everton at home (an underperformance of more than 1 point versus win/draw/loss likelihoods), while Manchester United would stage a thrilling comeback from a 2-3 deficit to beat Reading at home 4-3. The stage was set for a match that could have a range of results that would send Manchester United clear by six points or possibly draw City even with their crosstown rivals. In what seemed to be typical of United's season, the Red Devils appeared to have dropped two points via a draw only to be bailed out by a Robin van Persie 92nd minute goal. Six points clear at match day 15 meant United had nearly 5-to-1 odds of reclaiming the title at City's expense. Such odds indicated things were looking up for United, but nothing was assured with so much of the season left to play. Just ask Tottenham Hotspur, who had similar odds of finishing in the Top Four after their win at home against Arsenal to start the month of March and now find themselves behind their North London rival in the race for Champions League qualification. There was plenty of time for City to make up ground and United to falter, but neither did and this is one of the primary reasons United reclaimed the title. The two graphs below provide a comparison of United's and City's last two seasons as viewed through a 4-match running average of points per match. The first graph is from the 2011/12 season and originally found in this post from last May, while the second graph is from the 2012/13 season and includes a new feature introduced by the blog this year – the Transfer Price Index's mSq£ model. This model looks at which team is home and which one is playing away, the two valuations of the teams' players, and translates these factors into win, draw, and loss likelihoods. These likelihoods can then be converted into expected points via the following formula: Expected Match Points = (3*Probability of Win) + (1* Probability of Draw) The residual points for each match can then be calculated via this equation: Residual Points = Actual Points Earned – Expected Match Points Adding the sum of the previous matches' residuals to the residuals from the current match generates a cumulative residual. Positive residuals indicate over performance, while negative residuals indicate under performance. The above graphs make a clear case that Manchester United was far more consistent in their points accumulation this year than last. This year they only went at or below the 1.5 point per match barrier once, while they did so five times in 2011/12. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Red Devils spent a massive twenty-seven weeks at or above a 2.0 4-match running average PPM and nine weeks and counting at a 3.0 PPM. Across town, Manchester City's performance dropped off versus last year as much as United's improved. Twice this season City fell at or below the 1.0 4-match running average PPM barrier, something they never did last year. City also only hit the 3.0 PPM threshold twice this year, while last year they were able to put together and maintain four-match win streaks nearly four times as frequently. City was also far less consistent than United at earning points when they should have, as evidenced by the R2 value for their mSq£ residual line in the second graph. While losses at Southampton and Sunderland certainly hurt the Citizen's campaign to retain the title, ties at home to Everton, Arsenal, and Liverpool and away to West Ham, Stoke, and QPR took away nearly four points from City's residual. Meanwhile, Manchester United had a nearly robotically perfect linear rise in their residual throughout the season. As ESPN's Paul Carr pointed out on Monday, United's consistent accumulation of points throughout the season is due in large part to the them owning the second highest point total earned from losing positions (28 vs. 2001/02 Newcastle United's 34). Even with United's consistency they still are likely to finish with a very similar point total to last year with 96% chance of finishing with 94 or fewer points and a 65% likelihood of 92 or fewer points per the mSq£ model. Convert two of those comeback wins or a few of the ties to losses via an unlucky break or two, and United is right back where they found themselves at the end of last season (albeit with a worse goal differential this year). Not to take anything away from United's success this season, but the reality that they will finish with a very similar point total and worse goal differential than last year yet sixteen or so points clear of City suggests this season's result may have as much to do with City's regression from last season. As Simon Gleave has been pointing out with his and Infostrada's ISG coefficient all season, what matters is earning the same points from the same matches as last year and improve on matches that resulted in dropped points the year before. At the most basic level, City (ISG coefficient = -6) failed to do that while United (ISG coefficient = +7) succeeded at doing so. No matter how much one tries to explain Manchester United's point gap to City as over performance versus their goal differential (see graph above), City manager Roberto Mancini is feeling the heat from this season's results. This means that the Premier League's two biggest spending clubs – Chelsea and Manchester City – may both be looking for a new manager this summer. City would do wise to pay attention to their crosstown rival's model when it comes to managerial talent. As this blog pointed out back in January, Ferguson's tenure has been one big, long demonstration in consistent results that afford him greater leeway at United than probably any other manager gets at any other club. The economics at the top of the English game have moved into a phase of "diminishing returns" and "diseconomies of scale." Thus, the key differentiator at the top of the league is no longer outsized spending but a talented manager and front office staff who know how to extract the final 10% of performance from the resources made available to them, financial or otherwise. If Manchester City do not feel Mancini is the man to deliver this final 10% consistently, they must look for someone in the Wenger/Guardiola/Ferguson mold. Sir Alex doesn't look to be leaving his perch anytime soon, so City will need to find someone they believe can out fox the "old man". |
| North Korea demands recognition as nuclear arms state Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:35 PM PDT
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| Dragon's Maze: Evaluating Azorius Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:47 PM PDT Preparing for Magic: The Gathering Dragon's Maze Prerelease Events or some Limited play? It's time to take a look at what Azorius offers Dragon's Maze players. The traditional colors of blue/white flying and bureaucracy get some significant pickups in Dragon's Maze, and we'll also take a look at unguilded white cards in this article. Dragon's Maze is a small set (Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash are both large sets) and it houses all ten guilds, so we'll be looking smaller pieces of the puzzle with each evaluation. |
| North Korea demands recognition as nuclear arms state Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:35 PM PDT SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea demanded on Tuesday that it be recognized as a nuclear weapons state, rejecting a U.S. condition that it agree to give up its nuclear arms program before talks can begin.  |
| Japan nationalists near disputed isles, MPs visit shrine Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:40 PM PDT
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| Irate Italian president to begin talks on new coalition Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:19 PM PDT
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| New Paraguay Leader to Rebuild Regional Ties Posted: 22 Apr 2013 05:49 PM PDT Newly elected Paraguayan President Horacio Cartes will try to mend fences with his South American neighbors, who have ostracized the country after last year's contested impeachment of Fernando Lugo. |
| In Israel, U.S. Defense Delivers Embrace Posted: 22 Apr 2013 03:59 PM PDT On his first official trip to Israel, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel swapped endearments with his Israeli counterpart, embraced an Israeli soprano after she performed a patriotic anthem and offered what some might take as a green light for an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear complex. |
| Survey Finds Majority Backs Keystone Pipeline Posted: 22 Apr 2013 05:52 PM PDT A majority of Canadians and Americans backed TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline in a poll and suggested securing a stable energy supply should be a bigger priority than reducing carbon emissions. |
| U.S. Probes Suspect's Alleged Militant Ties Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:20 PM PDT U.S. investigators are looking into a Russian intelligence report that alleged Boston bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev met with a suspected militant during his six-month visit to Russia in 2012. |
| Japan nationalists near disputed isles, MPs visit shrine Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:40 PM PDT EAST CHINA SEA (Reuters) - Japanese nationalists sailed a flotilla of boats on Tuesday in waters near islands at the centre of a row between China and Japan, putting further strain on Tokyo's tense ties with Beijing as a group of more than 160 Japanese lawmakers visited a shrine seen by critics a symbol of Japan's past militarism.  |
| VIDEO: Woodstock icon Richie Havens dies Posted: 22 Apr 2013 08:46 PM PDT Richie Havens, the folk singer and guitarist who was the opening act at the 1969 Woodstock Festival, has died from a heart attack at the age of 72. |
| Posted: 22 Apr 2013 10:19 PM PDT As Pakistan prepares for national elections on May 11, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and his judiciary remain an influential force in the country's development as a democracy. |
| U.K. Suggests Pound Oversight if Scotland Goes Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:16 PM PDT An independent Scotland would need to accept a degree of oversight on economic policy from London if it wished to keep the pound and enter a monetary union with the rest of the U.K., the British government said. |
| VIDEO: Woodstock icon Richie Havens dies Posted: 22 Apr 2013 08:46 PM PDT Richie Havens, the folk singer and guitarist who was the opening act at the 1969 Woodstock Festival, has died from a heart attack at the age of 72. |
| Irate Italian president to begin talks on new coalition Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:19 PM PDT ROME (Reuters) - Italy's president launches urgent talks on Tuesday that could see a prime minister designated after two months of post-electoral stalemate that has weighed on a stagnant economy and alarmed Rome's partners in the euro.  |
| Half of Guantanamo detainees on hunger strike Posted: 22 Apr 2013 08:26 PM PDT US military to send more medical personnel to prison camp as 84 of 166 inmates are refusing meals. |
| Japan war shrine visits anger China, South Korea Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:28 PM PDT
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| New Avian-Flu Strain Puzzles Health Group Posted: 22 Apr 2013 07:48 PM PDT The World Health Organization still knows little about a deadly new form of avian flu that has killed 20 people and infected more than a hundred others in China, researchers said on Monday. |
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